eclipse
Constraining long-term climate and
sea-level projections using
the Last Interglacial

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Summary

The overall objective of iCLIPS is to improve projections of climate and sea-level changes over the next century and millennium, and to better understand their causes and mechanisms. This will be achieved by constraining the rates of climate change in the future based on simulations of the Last Interglacial (LIG, 130-115 kyr BP). This approach is based on the use of LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) developed in earlier Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO) projects over the last decade. The computational efficiency of this model will be exploited for a large number of experiments of the LIG climate and for long-term climate and sea-level change projections over the next millennium based on the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The key physical processes that control the evolution of climate, ice sheets and sea-level on millennial time scales and the likelihood of abrupt changes will be identified. The focus lies on the evolution of the two polar regions, the North Atlantic and Europe.

iCLIPS team

  • Philippe Huybrechts (promotor, coordinator)
  • Heiko Goelzer
  • Earth System Sciences & Department Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel,Belgium (VUB-ESSC)

  • Thierry Fichefet (promotor)
  • Marie-France Loutre
  • Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium (UCL-TECLIM)

News

  • December 2016. iCLIPS paper Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model published in Climate of the Past.

  • August 2016. iCLIPS paper Impact of ice sheet meltwater fluxes on the climate evolution at the onset of the Last Interglacial published in Climate of the Past.

  • September 2015. iCLIPS results submitted as two final papers to Climate of the Past.

  • August 2015. iCLIPS results presented at the INQUA conference, Nagoya, Japan.

  • July 2015. iCLIPS results presented at the PALSEA2 workshop in Tokyo, Japan.

  • April 2015. iCLIPS researchers present results at the EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria.

  • December 2014. iCLIPS researchers present results at the AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, USA.

  • August 2014. iCLIPS paper Factors controlling the last interglacial climate as simulated by LOVECLIM1.3 published in Climate of the Past.

  • May 2014. iCLIPS results presented at the Third PMIP3 workshop, Namur, Belgium.

  • 23 May 2014. iCLIPS user committee meeting, Brussels, Belgium.

  • April 2014. iCLIPS researchers present results at the EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria.

  • March 2014. iCLIPS researcher presents results at the BELQUA Workshop, Brussels, Belgium.

  • December 2013. iCLIPS results presented at the AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, USA.

  • October 2013. iCLIPS results presented at the PALSEA conference in Rome.

  • July 2013. iCLIPS researcher presents results at the DACA 13 conference in Davos.

  • May 2013. iCLIPS progress rated "favourable with only minor modifications" by the review committee during mid-term review.

  • April 2013. iCLIPS researchers present results at the EGU General Assembly 2013. Abstracts available here, here and here.

  • March 2013. iCLIPS paper listed in Environmental Research Letters Highlights of 2012.

  • October 2012. iCLIPS paper Millennial total sea level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM published in Environmental Research Letters. The publication was accopanied by a Perspective article and led to reactions from local news (file) to internet media (e.g. link,link,link). An extended abstract can be found here.

  • April 2012. iCLIPS researcher presents results at the EGU General Assembly 2012. Abstract available here.

  • September 2012. iCLIPS team gathers for a scientific meeting to discuss project progress.

  • January 2012. iCLIPS team gathers for a scientific meeting to discuss project progress.

  • April 2011. iCLIPS officially started with a kickoff meeting.

iCLIPS user committee

  • Dr. Koen BEERTEN (Studiecentrum voor Kernenergie, Mol, Belgium)
  • Dr. Pascale BRACONNOT (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France)
  • Prof. Dr. Dorthe DAHL-JENSEN (Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark)
  • Nathalie VAN ISACKER (International Polar Foundation, Brussels, Belgium)
  • Prof. Dr. Jonathan GREGORY (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading and Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom)
  • Marc DEPOORTERE (Federal Council for Sustainable Development, Brussels, Belgium)
  • Prof. Dr. Reto KNUTTI (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland)
  • Prof. Dr. Anders LEVERMANN (Universitaet Potsdam and Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Potsdam, Germany)
  • Prof. Dr. Hans RENSSEN (Departement Aardwetenschappen, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Publications

Publications of the teams

VUB-ESSC

UCL-TECLIM

  • Hezel, P., T. Fichefet, and F. Massonnet (2014). Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs. The Cryosphere, 8, 1195–1204, doi:10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014.
  • Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. M. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W. J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A. J. Weaver and M. Wehner (2013). Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, in press.
  • Eby, M., A.J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A.A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S.S. Drijfhout, N.R. Edwards, A.V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C.E. Forest, H. Goosse, P.B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I.I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S.M. Olsen, J.O.P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. Smith, R. Spahni, A.P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao (2013). Historical and idealized climate model experiments : An EMIC intercomparison. Clim. Past, 9, 1111-1140, 2013. doi:10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013
  • Massonnet, F., T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, C. Bitz, G. Philippon-Berthier, M. Holland, and P.-Y. Barriat (2012). Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice . The Cryosphere, 6, 1383-1394, doi:10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012.
  • Barthelemy, A., H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, and T. Fichefet (2012). Inclusion of a katabatic wind parameterization in a coarse-resolution global climate model. Ocean Modell., 48, 45-54, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.03.002.
  • Crespin, E., H. Goosse, T. Fichefet, A. Mairesse, and Y. Sallaz-Damaz (2012). Arctic climate over the past millennium : Annual and seasonal response to external forcings. The Holocene, published online. doi:10.1177/0959683612463095.
  • Goosse, H., Guiot, J., Mann, M. E., Dubinkina, S., Sallaz-Damaz, Y. (2012). The medieval climate anomaly in Europe : Comparison of the summer and annual mean signals in two reconstructions and in simulations with data assimilation. Global and Planetary Change, (84-85), 35-47. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.07.002.
  • Weaver, A.J., J. Sedlá?ek, M. Eby, K. Alexander, E. Crespin, T. Fichefet, G. Philippon-Berthier, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, K. Matsumoto, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, and K. Zickfeld (2012). Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. Geophys. Res. Lett.(39), L20709. doi: 10.1029/2012GL053763.
  • Zickfeld, K., M. Eby, A.J. Weaver, E. Crespin, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, G. Philippon-Berthier, N.R. Edwards, P. Holden, A. Eliseev, I. Mokhov, G. Feulner, H. Kienert, M. Perrette, T. Schneider von Deimling, C. Forest, F. Joos, R. Spahini, M. Steinacher, M. Kawamiya, K. Tachiiri, D. Kicklighter, E. Monier, A. Schlosser, A. Sokolov, K. Matsumoto, K. Tokos, S.M. Olsen, J.O.P. Pedersen, G. Shaffer, A. Ridgewell, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao (2012). Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility : An EMIC intercomparison. J. Clim., 26, 5782–5809, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1
  • Goosse H., E Crespin, S. Dubinkina, M.F. Loutre, M. E. Mann, H. Renssen, Y. Sallaz-Damaz, and D. Shindell (2011). The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the “Medieval Climate Anomaly”. Climate Dynamics 39 (12), 2847-2866.

Co-Publications

Contact

Heiko Goelzer
Earth System Sciences & Departement Geografie

Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Pleinlaan 2, B-1050 Brussel
Tel: +32-2-629-3782
Fax: +32-2-629-3378
email: hgoelzer@vub.ac.be
Office: 6F326 (Building F, 6th floor)
Campus Etterbeek